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A company manufactures 30 units per day. The sale of these items depends upon demand which has the following distribution:
Sales(units) 27 28 29 30 31 32
Probability 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.35 0.15 0.05

The production cost and sale price of each units are Rs. 40 and Rs. 50 respectively. Any unsold product is to be disposed off at a loss of Rs 15 per unit. There is penalty of Rs 5 per unit if demand is not met. Using the following Monte Carlo simulation technique, estimate the total profit/loss for the company for the next ten days. If the company decides to produce 29 units per day, when what is the advantage or disadvantage to the company?

Mumbai University > Mechanical Engineering > Sem 7 > Operations Research

Marks: 10 Marks

1 Answer
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Random numbers -

1470,9283,6264,3555,9743,2506,

7959,5352,6912,4167,7984,8579,

2486,0788,8872,6599,9769,

4629,3246,1781.

As a first step, random numbers 0000-9999 are allocated to various possible sale values in proportion to the probabilities associated with them.

Sales (units) Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval
27 0.10 0.10 0000-0999
28 0.15 0.25 1000-2499
29 0.20 0.45 2500-4499
30 …

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